As predicted and discussed in recent days, the pieces are beginning to fall into place for a hard night tonight and Monday across parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Low pressure will emerge from Mexico and move across New Mexico, then over Texas to access tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. The contrast in air masses, along with convective activity, will be more than adequate to provide widespread severe weather and heavy rain across a large area.
Beginning this afternoon and evening, heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur in New Mexico, west Texas, and the Texas panhandle. Then, more organized heavy thunderstorms will travel east/northeast into other parts of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
Heavy rain and thunder will be widespread, but the most violent storms will be immediately ahead of the low pressure system, dragging down with the subsequent cold front.
This will put areas like Dallas/Ft. Worth at risk for severe thunderstorms. We’ll also see that line cross southeast Kansas and east Oklahoma before heading into Missouri, Arkansas, and Louisiana.
The most violent thunderstorms are likely to bring damaging winds, huge hail, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and an enhanced danger of tornadoes. Our timeframe for this event remains this afternoon through late Monday evening, moving from southwest to east/northeast.
